IPFM International Panel on Fissile Materials

The IPFM BLOG: Tracking highly enriched uranium and plutonium, the key ingredients in nuclear weapons, and fostering global efforts to secure and eliminate these materials

This blog by members of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), including co-chair Frank von Hippel of Princeton University, aims to provide the public, the media and policy makers information, technical analysis, and ideas to further nuclear disarmament, halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and ensure that terrorists do not acquire nuclear weapons.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent positions of the IPFM.

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India: Living Beyond its Nuclear Means

posted by M. V. Ramana on Nov 1st, 2007 [15:05h]
under: India, US-India Nuclear Deal
last edited on Nov 2nd, 2007 [06:15h]

On Monday, 21 October, S. K. Jain, the head of the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited announced that uranium fuel shortages had led to five of India’s 17 nuclear power plants being shut down and the rest were now, on average, at half power.

This crisis is no surprise. India has to rely on limited, poor quality, domestic uranium to both fuel its nuclear reactors, except for two very old imported U.S. reactors for which it is occasionally able to import fuel, and to produce material for its nuclear weapons program, and there is not enough to go around. Over the last few years, fuel shortages have forced the capacity factors of Indian nuclear power plants to fall from an average of about 75% in 2003-04 to 56% in 2006-07. The Department of Atomic Energy has been trying to open up many new mines around the country, but has been meeting stiff local opposition on environmental, public health, and social grounds.

The roots of the problem are long-standing international efforts to stem proliferation through the adoption of export control norms, Indian determination to pursue its nuclear weapons program, and poor planning by the managers of the Indian atomic complex.

From the perspective of the Indian nuclear establishment, one of the important motivations for the US-India nuclear deal is to relieve the uranium crunch. By exempting India from international nuclear trade rules, the deal would let India import uranium. Importing uranium will allow India to fuel its safeguarded power reactors, build more reactors, and free up India’s domestic uranium for its military program. (See Fissile Materials in South Asia: The Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal).

But the deal has taken longer than expected. It has stalled as India’s Communist Parties, who are part of the ruling coalition, worry about Washington using the deal to force Indian policy to come into line with US interests.

Read More Below:

India used a nuclear reactor, technology and material it bought for peaceful purposes to make plutonium for its nuclear weapons program, including for its 1974 nuclear weapons test. In response, and to stop others from doing the same, the international community banned nuclear sales to countries that are outside the NPT and do not allow IAEA inspectors access to all their facilities. These rules now apply only to India, Pakistan and Israel.

As of October 2007, the total electric capacity of India’s domestically fuelled power reactors is 3800 MWe. At 80% capacity, these reactors would require about 545 tons of natural uranium fuel per year. The weapon plutonium production reactors need about another 35 tons of uranium annually. The uranium enrichment facility may need about 10 tons of natural uranium feed a year to make fuel for India’s nuclear submarine. The total current requirements are almost 600 tons of domestic natural uranium per year.

Indian uranium mining has not kept pace with increases in the number of nuclear reactors. The relatively better quality ore has already been mined, leaving only very low grade ore of the kind not mined in any other country.

India’s older uranium mines in the Jaduguda area, in eastern India, produce about 200 tons/year. An open cast mine was recently inaugurated in nearby Bandurang and is yet to reach full capacity. But it will only produce about 280 tons of natural uranium. Two smaller mines are scheduled for 2008 and 2010, but may be delayed.

The US-India nuclear deal is an effort to change all this (see Wrong Ends, Means, and Needs: Behind the U.S. Nuclear Deal With India). In July 2005, President Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced agreement on a deal to exempt India from the US and international rules that for almost three decades have sought to prevent it and other states from using commercial imports of nuclear technology and fuel to aid their nuclear weapons ambitions. The policy shift comes because Washington seeks a new strategic ally in India to counter a rising China, and Wall Street wants better access to Indian markets. Leaders in New Delhi desire great power status and acceptance as a nuclear weapon state and a larger nuclear power sector.

Next Stop: Woodrow Wilson School

posted by Alexander Glaser on Oct 22nd, 2007 [14:49h]
under: briefings, gfmr
last edited on Oct 24th, 2007 [09:10h]

This coming Thursday, Frank von Hippel, Harold Feiveson, and Alexander Glaser will present findings from the Global Fissile Material Report 2007 at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. Everyone is invited.

WHEN: Thursday, October 25, 12:30-2:00 p.m.
WHERE: Robertson Hall, Bowl 001 (NEW LOCATION), Princeton University

This is a follow-up to our briefing last week at the U.N. The slides of Glaser's presentation, which focused on nuclear weapons and fissile material stockpiles and reductions, are available here.

Nine Tons of Plutonium

posted by Frank von Hippel on Oct 22nd, 2007 [10:28h]
under: plutonium, stocks
last edited on Oct 22nd, 2007 [14:33h]

On 17 September 2007, Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman announced that the U.S. will remove 9 metric tons of plutonium from its weapon stockpile. This most recent declaration is a 20 percent reduction of the amount of plutonium in the U.S. stockpile of plutonium assigned to the weapon program: the remaining inventory of weapon-grade plutonium is now 37.8 tons (see updated bar chart below).

Click here to enlarge

Assuming a fissile material inventory of 4 kg in an average pit, the 9 tons would be equivalent to more than 2,000 nuclear warheads and the 36 tons remaining in U.S. pits that has not been declared excess would be equivalent to almost 10,000 warheads.

In 1995, the U.S. declared 45 tons of separated plutonium excess. Of that, 38.2 tons was weapon grade, of which 21.3 tons was actually in excess weapons or components at Pantex. This left 44.9 tons of weapon-grade plutonium in weapons and components at Pantex plus 1.9 tons of weapon-grade plutonium in other locations not declared excess. All this data is summarized in the DOE's 1996 publication Plutonium: The First 50 Years.

For a recent discussion of plutonium disposition efforts, see Chapter 3 of the Global Fissile Material Report 2007, Disposition of Excess Plutonium, lead-authored by Matthew Bunn (Managing the Atom, Harvard University).

IPFM to present Global Fissile Material Report 2007 at the United Nations.

posted by Alexander Glaser on Oct 16th, 2007 [11:19h]
under: briefings, gfmr, fmct
last edited on Oct 17th, 2007 [10:00h]

Harold Feiveson, Alexander Glaser and Frank von Hippel from the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) will speak at the United Nations on: "Toward a Global Cleanout of Nuclear Weapon Materials."

This event will be sponsored by the U.N. NGO Committee on Disarmament, Peace and Security, with the cooperation of the U.N. Office for Disarmament Affairs.

WHEN: Friday, October 19, 1:15-2:45 p.m.

WHERE: Conference Room 8, United Nations Headquarters, NYC

The Global Fissile Material Report 2007 appears on the fiftieth aniversary of a remarkable moment of arms-control history. In November 1957, the U.N. General Assembly Resolution 1148 (XII) called for an agreement to provide for "[...] the cessation of the production of fissionable materials for weapons purposes and the complete devotion of future production of fissionable materials to non-weapons purposes under effective international control; [...]" -- now better known as a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Here is the full text of the resolution (also as PDF).

IPFM Releases Global Fissile Material Report 2007

posted by Alexander Glaser on Oct 3rd, 2007 [10:50h]
under: GFMR, fissile materials, HEU, plutonium, nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, nuclear weapons
last edited on Oct 22nd, 2007 [10:46h]

On Thursday, 11 October, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, will host the launch of the 2007 Global Fissile Material Report by the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), an independent group of scientists and analysts from sixteen countries.

The Global Fissile Material Report provides an annual review of worldwide stocks, production, and disposition of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium, the key ingredients in nuclear weapons, and assesses global efforts to secure and eliminate these materials. Deep cuts and consolidation in the stocks of highly enriched uranium and plutonium is critical to nuclear disarmament, halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and ensuring that terrorists do not acquire nuclear weapons.

Download the full report: GFMR 2007

Here's the Table of Contents:

Nuclear Weapon and Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production
Disposition of Excess Highly Enriched Uranium
Disposition of Excess Plutonium
Fissile Material Consolidation in the U.S. Nuclear Complex
Progress Toward Nuclear Disarmament
International Safeguards in the Nuclear Weapon States
Managing the Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Russia’s Nuclear-Energy Complex and its Roles as an International Fuel-Cycle-Services Provider
Detection of Clandestine Fissile Material Production

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